On paper, Group F is probably the most boring group in the tournament. There are few true superstars and none of the teams play particularly attractive football. Italy (SPI rank 11) are four years removed from their triumph in Germany and coach Marcello Lippi seems adamantly opposed to changing anything from 2006. That means an already old squad is now bordering on senior-citzeney. Fortunatly for the Azzuri, they got the easiest draw of any of the seeds with Paraguay (SPI rank 20), Slovakia (SPI rank 49), and New Zealand (SPI rank 92).
Italy, despite their geriatric makeup, boast the same disciplined approach that has served them well over the years. Gianluigi Buffon is one of the best goalkeepers in the world and commands a still-solid defense. In 2006, Italy did not give up a goal to an opposing player until Zidane’s penalty kick in the final. The midfield is also impressive, with many of Serie A’s top clubs providing the players. But the Italian’s fortunes might depend on the health of Andrea Pirlo, who was questionable for the group stages due to injury. With age and depth, and coach Mario Lippi’s loyalty to Juventus players standing out as huge question marks can the Italians progress deep in the tournament? Probably not. But if history is any indicator it is unwise to underestimate the Italians.
Paraguay went through CONEMBOL qualifying with surprising ease, defeating Brazil and Argentina en route to South Africa. Leading-scorer Roque Santa Cruz has to be in top form if La Albiroja are going to break down some of the stout defenses in Group F. The problem Paraguay is going to have is getting the ball from the midfield up to the goal scorers. Also, Paraguay may have notched some impressive wins during qualifying, but only on home soil. Their away record (3-3-3) was decent but hardly world beating. Whether or not Paraguay can make it to the knockout rounds will depend on whether or not they can overcome their spotty World Cup history and play like they did at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.
New Zealand comes into South Africa as the lowest-ranked team, according to SPI. But despite the low expectations, the All-Whites defeated Bahrain in a thrilling playoff after topping a qualifying group including New Caledonia, Fiji and Vanuatu to make the field for the first time since 1982. But the Kiwis have shown some promise in their recent friendlies. They looked strong in a narrow 2-1 defeat to Australia and beat dark-horse favorites Serbia 1-0. New Zealand also played in the Confederation’s Cup in 2009 but whether or not that will give them advantage is yet to be seen. Simply getting a point would be considered a massive success for the tiny island country and don’t be too surprised if they can pull it off.
Slovakia is a bit of a mystery. Despite not having qualified for a major tournament since their seperation from the Czech Republic the “Repre” topped one of the more difficult groups in qualifying, defeating their former countrymen. It’s difficult to find a weakness in the Slovakian side but neither do they have an abundance of talent in any position. They have speed and they have teamwork and Slovakia will need both to break down these defenses.
Prediction: As tempting as it is to give the Kiwis a point the odds are just too long. That being said, I foresee the other three teams sitting on six points when group play concludes. Italy goes through on top with Slovakia edging Paraguay out based on goals scored.
Game To Watch: Italy vs. Slovakia, June 24. With neither team likely to have assured their passage into the next round, the Italians and the Slovaks will be looking to score goals. Slovakia’s speedy wings will stretch the Italian’s back four while occasionally leading to vunerability on the counterattack. I don’t expect to see a huge amount of goals but that goes for every game in this group. What I do expect to see is a lot of chances and a lot of end-to-end play.
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The average age of the Azzurri squad is close to a couple of other teams including England and Brazil with both having an older squad on average.
I think the issue is not of age but rather the lack of creativity after Lippi chose to exclude players like Cassano or Totti or Miccoli (now injured) or even Balotelli (controversial player but has talent).
I believe Azzurri should go through because Lippi is a good coach regardless of his unpopular choices at times. Italy will rely on Buffon, Chiellini (if healthy) and De Rossi.
I totally agree with you that Italy’s average age isn’t years and years older than England or Brazil. But with those two teams you have players like Rooney or Robhino that give the team a youthful jolt. Italy, in my opinion, don’t have that. So not only are they old but they play old. Maybe that’ll work to their advantage and teams will underestimate them but I just have a hard time seeing anything further than the quarterfinals for the Azzuri.
Prior to World Cup 2006, no one expected Italy to do much and yet they went on to win the trophy without conceding a single goal from open play. Many forget that their most talented defender Nesta got injured a couple of games into the tournament. Cannavaro ended up being great and more than compensated for Nesta’s absence as he had to cover for any mistakes by Barzagli or Materazzi.
Clearly the WC 2006 squad had much more in terms of talent since F. Totti & A. Del Piero were on the team while a goal poacher such as F. Inzaghi was on the bench to show how deep the attacking lineup was. Gilardino, Toni and Iaquinta all played and no one striker was really able to establish himself as the number one striker.
Brazil, Spain and Argentina are all more talented but the Azzurri do their best when the odds are against them. To the advantage of Italy, Lippi is an experienced coach and is able to motivate his players to get the best out of them.
Historically Italy start slow before improving and rarely do well in friendly matches. I think you are right about the team’s lacking compared to Brazil or Spain, and I don’t think the Azzurri can challenge but that is why in football you play the full match to see who wins. I think this Italy team is inferior to the Italy teams of 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. It’s one of the worst since WC1986 when, ironically, the team was actually attempting to defend the title won in WC1982. Let’s see if history repeats itself or if Lippi will lead the team to a great achievement.
I think the first match against Paraguay will give a clear hint of what the Azzurri are capable of. They do miss having someone like Cassano or Balotelli. I think Brazil vs Spain could be the final in this WC.
America ready?
http://www.indysportsnation.com/sports/isn-061010-soccer-world-story,0,5135128.story