As the final group stage matches begin today, the process of figuring out which teams will advance to the round of 16 may not be as clear cut as you might think. After a bit of math and guess work, you may assume that point or extra goal scored could in fact be enough to see your team through. What you failed to realize is that the team behind you in your group is in fact level on all the other variables FIFA use to determine who advances from the group stage. As terrible as it could be, your team could in fact be eliminated by a painful drawing of lots.
Current standings in 6 of the 8 groups are quite close and in actuality could see a few teams finish level on points, goal differential and goals scored which could result in a team being eliminated by a drawing of lots (FIFA’s World Cup regulations, article 39) for the first time in World Cup history.
Since 1958, replays and playoffs have been used to settle scores between teams who have finished level. Things changed in 1990 when the four best 3rd place teams advanced which saw Holland and the Republic of Ireland finish level on points, goal differential and goals scored. Ireland won the drawing of lots and so advanced to play Romania while Holland were awarded third and so had to play eventual winners West Germany in the next round - a game they of course lost. Holland weren’t eliminated directly by the draw, but definitely got the short end of the stick.
To clear up the rules today, total points scored come first in deciding who advances out of the group followed by goal differential then total goals scored. If teams are still level, then head to head records will come into play. If teams remain level still, then the greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams involved is used, and finally, if teams are still level, FIFA will draw lots.
The current groups in question that could come down to the drawing of lots are A, C, D, F, G and H. Although the odds do in fact point to clear cut winners, the use of the rarely used draw would be an incredible story to follow and one World Cup fans wouldn’t soon forget.
Leave a comment below about how you would feel if your team either advanced or were eliminated by the drawing of lots.
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Given that FRANCE is FRANCE, I expect the following scenario to play out.
Group A:
Mexico and Uruguay play to a draw, each ending with 5 points in the group and going through to the Round of 16 (knock-out) phase.
France defeats Host Country South Africa 5:nil.
FRA and SA eliminated.
France complains in the strongest terms (actually suggest) that Mexico and Uruguay conspired (fixed) the match to keep France out and file a grievance with FIFA.
How typically FROG.
IPCress, I was going to write a story this morning with a similar plot line. I think you’re absolutely correct. Expect a lot of controversy to come out of today’s matches!!
Cheers,
The Gaffer
Pardon my french but why the f**k isn’t discipline taken into account before lots? It seems to me a team with less cards deserves to advance. Aren’t there many tournaments that do this?
Discipline would only be a reasonable measure if the referring was consistent. Thus far in the world cup the referring has been far from consistent therefore it would not be a fair system.